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Sep 15, 2025

XAU/USD chart on the weekly time frame

XAU/USD chart on the weekly time frame

As anticipated in the previous report, gold's bullish trajectory persisted, achieving the initial short-term objective within the $3,650 to $3,700 range by establishing a weekly high near $3,675.

The move was supported by robust trading volume, which consistently registered on-balance positive figures, thereby validating the price advance and indicating sustained buyer interest, while key technical indicators suggest further bullish capacity remains. 

In the immediate term, the proximate target zone is identified between $3,700 and $3,750. A conclusive break above this zone, particularly on above-average volume, would signal a continuation of the bullish impulse and open a path toward higher valuations. 

To prudently manage risk on existing long positions initiated at lower levels, it is imperative to implement defensive measures. Raising the stop-loss order to a profit protection level of $3,600 would serve to lock in gains and protect capital from a sudden reversal, effectively ensuring a risk-free trade while allowing for further upside participation.

Shifting to the medium-term outlook, the broader bullish structure remains fully intact, with the primary objective still focused on the $3,850 region. This target is derived from measured move projections. To safeguard the considerable gains accrued in these positions, a more comprehensive risk management strategy is required. It is recommended to use a trailing profit protection strategy, which should now be set at $3,540.
 
EURUSD Chart on the weekly time frame

EURUSD Chart on the weekly time frame

Over the preceding six-week period, the EUR/USD pair has continued to trade within the range established by the dominant weekly candle initiated in early August, bounded by support at 1.1391 and resistance at 1.1770.

For the current bullish outlook to remain valid, price action must maintain its position above the key support confluence in the 1.1575-1.1600 zone.

A decisive breakout above the 1.1770 resistance level is required to catalyze a renewed bullish impulse, targeting a primary objective at 1.1900, with a secondary projection at 1.2100.

It is posited that an anticipated interest rate decision is likely to resolve this equilibrium, with a bias for an upward resolution. From a risk-management standpoint, a breach of the 1.1575 support level would invalidate the bullish thesis, serving as a logical level for stop-loss placement to define and manage trade risk.Support: 61.65.
 
USTEC chart on the weekly time frame

USTEC chart on the weekly time frame

As anticipated, the US Tech 100 (USTEC) advanced on well-below-average volume to conclude the week marginally above the 24,000 level.

The rally has now positioned the index at a significant technical resistance, defined by the trendline connecting peak highs since June 2024, which has historically contained all prior advances.

The confluence of this major resistance, persistently low volume—indicating a lack of broad market participation—and bearish signals within technical oscillators reinforces our maintained negative outlook for the near term.

We posit that the anticipated interest rate cut is likely already priced into current valuations and may consequently serve as a catalyst for a sell-off. From a tactical perspective, a near-term short position is triggered on a break below 24,040, targeting a decline toward 23,000.

A break below the 22,950 level would activate a medium-term bearish thesis, with subsequent downside targets projected at 22,000 and ultimately 20,000. 
 
USDX chart on the weekly time frame

USDX chart on the weekly time frame

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shifted to a medium-term bearish trend following its decisive break below the major psychological support level of 100.00-point. While the subsequent decline found a floor at a critical long-term bullish trendline, the underlying selling pressure engendered by the 100.00-point breakdown is anticipated to supersede any nascent bullish signals.

A sustained recovery would require a consecutive daily close above the former support, now resistance, in the 102.00-point region.

The preceding four months of consolidation between this resistance and the long-term trendline have resulted in a period of pronounced indecision, particularly evident in related currency pairs like EUR/USD.

This equilibrium and the associated mixed signals are projected to be resolved with the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision on Wednesday, which is expected to provide the fundamental catalyst for the next significant directional move.

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