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Sep 29, 2025

XAU/USD chart on the weekly time frame

XAU/USD chart on the weekly time frame

Gold exhibits a robust bullish trend on the weekly timeframe (chart on the left), having registered six consecutive weekly closes higher and achieving a high of approximately $3,790. 

The primary medium-term technical target remains at $3,850, supported by momentum indicators which, despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering overbought territory, continue to reflect healthy bullish momentum. 

The core strategy remains to hold existing long positions, with risk management parameters adjusted by raising the profit protection (trailing stop) level to $3,600. 

On the daily timeframe (chart on the right), price action has entered a consolidation phase following a strong Monday’s rally. This aligns with the prior week's anticipation of a sideways correction, although the consolidation is occurring at a higher price range than initially projected. 

Short-term oscillators now indicate extreme overbought conditions, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) nearing a potential bearish crossover. 

As price approaches the medium-term objective and buying pressure shows signs of exhaustion, further consolidation with a bullish bias is anticipated. 

Consequently, the near-term tactical approach is to limit new entries to pullbacks towards support, avoiding breakout purchases, with a short-term stop-loss established at $3,700.
 
EURUSD Chart on the weekly time frame

EURUSD Chart on the weekly time frame

A bearish technical outlook has been established for the EURUSD following last week's price action. The pair confirmed the prior week's bearish shooting star candlestick pattern by closing below its low, a move compounded by a preceding false breakout above the 1.1775 resistance level. 

While the pair continues to trade within the broader range of July's dominant weekly candle, the confluence of the confirmed shooting star and a bearish MACD signal increases the probability of a downward move in the medium term. A weekly close above 1.1800 is required to invalidate this negative bias. 

From a strategic standpoint, the 60-level on the RSI indicator is now a critical focal point; a breach below this level is expected to trigger a strong sell signal. 

The appropriate medium-term strategy would be to initiate short positions upon an RSI break below 60, targeting a zone around 1.1400, with a stop-loss placed at 1.1800. 

For a shorter-term horizon, selling into a retracement towards the 1.1750-1.1760 resistance zone offers a favorable risk/reward profile, with a profit target near 1.1600 and a tight stop-loss above 1.1775.

 
USTEC chart on the weekly time frame

USTEC chart on the weekly time frame

Technical analysis of the USTEC index confirms a bearish medium-term outlook, with price action rejecting the upper boundary of a bearish megaphone formation. 

This structure will remain valid unless the index achieves a decisive close above the 25,000 resistance level. 
Momentum indicators offer cautious confirmation; while the MACD and RSI have not yet generated confirmed sell signals, the RSI is showing early signs of weakness by retreating from the overbought threshold. 

A longer-term assessment of the RSI reveals underlying exhaustion, characterized by its repeated failure to sustain in overbought territory from July 2024 to February 2025—a deviation from typical uptrend dynamics that preceded the March-April correction. Furthermore, the RSI's recent move into oversold territory is another non-confirmation of a healthy uptrend. 

The primary medium-term strategy involves profit-taking at current levels, with a re-entry contingent upon a confirmed break above 25,000 and a stop-loss set at 23,000 in case of opening long positions. 
For short-term traders, a tactical approach is to initiate short positions on rallies toward the 24,700-24,800 resistance zone, targeting a move down to 23,000, with a stop-loss placed above 25,000 to invalidate the setup.
 
USDX chart on the weekly time frame

USDX chart on the weekly time frame

Technical analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates a constructive near-term outlook despite its prevailing long-term downtrend. 

The index has established a significant medium-term support base around the 96.30 level, a floor that has prompted two separate rebounds over the past three months. 

Recent price action has solidified this bullish momentum, with a weekly hammer candlestick pattern followed by a confirming bullish candle. 

This is concurrently supported by a bullish crossover signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator and a positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). 

These collective technical signals suggest a high probability of a further near-term advance, with an initial price objective at the 100.00 level—a historically significant support zone that is now expected to function as a major resistance. 

This technical perspective on the DXY, when correlated with a corresponding bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair, reinforces the thesis for US Dollar strength in the coming sessions.
 

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