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Crucial week as markets await inflation data

 

Detailed dates and direct impact on the dollar, gold, and oil.

Global markets are gearing up for a week packed with US economic data, which is expected to play a key role in determining trading trends, especially with continued focus on inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policies.

 

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Monday, April 6, 2026

 

6:00 PM Gulf Standard Time (GST)

March Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (IMI)

54.8 (Previous: 56.1)

Measures the performance of the services sector in the US economy and is a key indicator of economic activity.

Expectation:

A relative slowdown in growth within the services sector.

Impact:

1. A weaker reading puts pressure on the dollar and supports gold and stocks.
2. A stronger reading supports the dollar and puts pressure on gold.

 

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

 

6:30 PM Gulf Standard Time (GST)

US Crude Oil Inventories

5.451 million barrels

Measures the change in oil inventories and reflects the level of market demand.

 

Expectation:

Continued rise in inventories.

Impact:

1. High inventories put downward pressure on oil.
2. Low inventories provide upward support for oil.

 

22:00 Gulf Standard Time (GST)

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes

A detailed record of the Fed's decisions and future direction.

Expectation: A cautious tone, maintaining a relatively hawkish stance.

Impact:

1. A hawkish tone supports the dollar and puts pressure on gold and stocks.
2. An accommodative tone has the opposite effect.

 

Thursday, April 9, 2026

 

16:30 Gulf Standard Time (GST)

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Monthly) – February

0.4% (Expected 0.4%)

 

Core PCE Price Index (Yearly) – February

3.0% (Previous 3.1%)

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

 

Expectation: Inflation remains stable with a slight downward bias year-on-year.

Impact:

1. Higher inflation supports the dollar and puts pressure on gold.
2. Lower inflation supports gold and weakens the dollar.

GDP (Quarterly) - Q4

0.7% (Expected 0.7%)

Measures overall economic growth.

 

Expectation:

Stable with relatively weak growth.

 

First Inputs to Unemployment

210,000 (Previously 202,000)

An indicator of labor market strength.

 

Expectation:

Stable with a slight increase.

Impact:

1. Higher unemployment weakens the dollar and supports gold.
2. Lower unemployment strengthens the dollar.

 

General Market Impact:

1. Dollar: Sensitive to inflation and Fed data.
2. Gold: Moves inversely to the dollar.
3. Oil: Directly affected by inventory data.
4. Stocks: Benefit from weak data and are harmed by tightening.