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Sep 18, 2025

25bp cut pressures dollar, boosts gold

 

Paul’s dovish tone lifts stocks

After much anticipation, the Federal Reserve announced yesterday a 25 basis point cut in interest rates, keeping them in the 4.00-4.25% range, in line with market expectations.

  • The US dollar continued its weakness after the decision, falling further against the euro and the yen, as investors interpreted Powell's tone as dovish.
  • Gold responded strongly, surpassing $3,700 per ounce, benefiting from a weaker dollar and increased appetite for safe-haven assets.
  • Oil remained relatively stable, with geopolitical risks (attacks on Russian facilities) further weighing on future supply prospects.
  • US stocks rose on the Fed's dovish tone, as investors' risk appetite improved.
  Fed

Our Predictions Yesterday:

  • The predictions came true: The Federal Reserve actually cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
  • Gold headed higher as expected and could approach $3,800 per ounce if pressure on the dollar continues.
  • Markets welcomed the dovish tone, which supported US stocks.
  • Oil has not seen a strong rise yet, and geopolitical tensions remain the biggest influence.

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