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Feb 16, 2026

XAU/USD chart on the weekly time frame

XAU/USD chart on the weekly time frame

Following a two-week period characterized by pronounced volatility and elevated trading volume, the subsequent week witnessed a marked contraction in both metrics. 

While the formation of higher lows on the daily chart typically signals bullish momentum, this price action is contravened by both the weekly chart’s structure and its underlying trend indicators. 

The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the weekly timeframe has begun to roll over from deeply overbought territory, a pattern that has occurred only twice in the preceding two years. In both historical instances, this technical development precipitated a minimum of fourteen weeks of sideways consolidation with no new marginal highs. 

Given the preceding confluence of high volatility, record volume, and extreme, uncharted overbought conditions on the monthly indicators, it is assessed that the current corrective phase is incomplete. As such, any near-term rebound towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $5,140 is interpreted as an opportunity to initiate short positions. 

The combination of recent volatility expansion and persistent overbought signals on the monthly chart suggests that gold established a significant cyclical peak for 2026 at the $5,600 level. 
The medium-term downside target is projected within the $3,700–$3,900 range. Consequently, the prevailing strategy remains one of selling into price strength.
 
EURUSD Chart on the weekly time frame

EURUSD Chart on the weekly time frame

The EUR/USD pair concluded the trading week with a settlement above the significant 1.1800 threshold, marking the third consecutive weekly close beyond this level. 

Despite the occurrence of only modest price appreciation accompanied by declining volume, the sustained position above 1.1800 reinforces the probability of a near-term advance toward the 1.2100 zone. 
This technical bias is further supported by momentum oscillators, notably the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which has maintained a bullish configuration. 

Concurrently, the medium-term constructive outlook remains viable, with 1.2100 persisting as the initial upside objective. 

In alignment with this updated price action, it is prudent to adjust the protective stop-loss order upward to 1.1740, corresponding to the three-week low, thereby replacing the previously recommended stop-loss level of 1.1670.
 

 
USTEC chart on the weekly time frame

USTEC chart on the weekly time frame

The USTEC index recorded its second consecutive weekly decline, following a rejection from the upper boundary of a well-defined consolidation range spanning approximately 24,000 to 26,200 points, which had persisted for twenty-two consecutive weeks. 

Although a definitive signal regarding the index’s medium-term directional bias remains pending, technical indicators, particularly bearish signals from the monthly oscillators and the weekly Moving Average

Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, suggest an elevated probability of a downside resolution. 
The technical setup implies an increased likelihood of a sustained breach below the critical 24,000 support level in the near term. 

However, a short-term rebound to retest the recently violated support zone of 25,000–25,300 may materialize during the initial trading sessions of the week. Should such a recovery occur, it would present an opportunity to initiate new short positions. 
 

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