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May 29, 2025
Diplomatic moves lift Russian ruble to new highs
Moscow proposes new round of peace talks with Kyiv
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The Russian ruble surged against the US dollar on Thursday, reaching its highest level in more than two years, surpassing 78 rubles to the dollar, following Russian statements regarding the possibility of launching a new round of peace talks with Ukraine. Sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Moscow was "open to unconditional dialogue" with Kyiv, sparking cautious optimism in international markets, especially amid mounting Western pressure to de-escalate the conflict. The ruble's rise was also supported by increased energy export revenues and domestic capital controls, but the strongest driver was the Kremlin's announcement of a "political intention to revive the diplomatic track." Conversely, dollar-denominated commodity prices, such as gold and oil, fell slightly as investors shifted toward Russian assets and risk appetite improved. |
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Market Impact:
- Ruble vs. Dollar: Up more than 2.4% in a single session.
- Moscow Exchange Index: Up about 1.7%, driven by the energy and banking sectors.
- Gold and Oil: Marginal declines due to a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions.
- Safe-haven currencies (such as the yen and franc): Seen some selling pressure.
Forecast:
Analysts expect the ruble to continue its gains if Russia and Ukraine issue concrete signals regarding the start of meaningful talks. Continued demand for Russian oil in Asia could also bolster the currency's near-term stability.