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Oct 14, 2025
OPEC+ raises output as IEA sees 4M-barrel surplus
Rising supply pressures oil prices
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the global oil market is heading toward a growing surplus in 2025 and 2026, following OPEC+’s decision to increase production. Total supply is expected to grow by around 3.0 million barrels per day in 2025, while global demand is projected to rise by only 0.71 million barrels per day, potentially creating a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day. This expansion in supply is also driven by producers outside OPEC, particularly the United States, Canada, and Brazil, further pressuring the balance between supply and demand. On the other hand, some major oil officials believe that this surplus could narrow in the medium term if production declines when prices fall to lower levels, especially among non-OPEC producers.
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From a technical perspective, the anticipated surplus increases the likelihood that prices will struggle to maintain an upward trend and could enter a correction phase, targeting lower price zones if demand remains weak. |
Outlook
In the short term, oil prices may face downward pressure toward key support levels, especially if the surplus exceeds expectations.
If demand weakens or a broader economic slowdown occurs, prices could fall toward the $50–$55 range in more pessimistic scenarios.
However, in the medium term, if non-OPEC supply declines due to cost pressures, the market could rebalance and find support again near $60 or above.