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Oil Price Axis – August 6, 2025

Aug 06, 2025

Daily market updates

#Commodities

WTI crude falls despite unexpected inventory drop

Inventory dip fails to ease growing supply concerns

Daily Performance Summary

Down:
WTI crude oil prices remain at $65.30 per barrel, down slightly, despite the American Petroleum Institute's (API) announcement that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels, according to API estimates, reinforcing expectations of a weekly inventory draw.

EIA Inventories:
Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected at 10:30 a.m. EST, which could confirm a low inventory decline—not enough to offset concerns about rising production.

Supply and Demand:
Continued expectations of increased OPEC+ production by September weigh on markets, amid concerns about weak global demand due to trade tensions. US threats to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil also exacerbate uncertainty.

Future Outlook

Bearish Scenario:
If the EIA releases data reflecting an increase in inventories—or a smaller-than-expected decline—the price could decline toward $64.50–$63.50.

Balanced Scenario:
Summer demand continues with production holding steady around $65–$66, especially if demand versus production remains subdued.

Bull Scenario:
If there is a strong indication of inventory depletion (more than 5 million barrels), or signs of production restrictions emerge, the price could rise toward $66.50–$67.50.

- Source: Reuters

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