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Apr 15, 2026
Oil Between Recovery and Pressure Ahead of US Inventory Data
A look at energy markets and anticipation of US oil inventory data.
Oil prices are experiencing noticeable volatility during today’s trading, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near $90.30, as markets await the upcoming US crude oil inventory data.
This anticipation comes at a sensitive time, as fundamental factors such as supply and demand expectations intersect with geopolitical influences, making price movements more prone to sharp fluctuations upon the data release.
US Crude Oil Inventory Data
US crude oil inventory data is scheduled for release today at 18:30 GST, with the following expectations:
- Forecast: +2.100 million barrels
- Previous: +3.081 million barrels
Expectations indicate a slowdown in the pace of inventory increases compared to last week, which could support prices if the actual reading comes in lower than expected.
On the other hand, a higher-than-expected reading may renew selling pressure on oil, especially amid continued increases in supply.
Key Factors Affecting Oil
Oil prices are influenced by several key factors, including:
- Geopolitical tensions:
Ongoing instability in major oil-producing regions continues to provide indirect support to prices.
- Global demand expectations:
Growing concerns about economic slowdown may weigh on oil demand.
- US dollar movements:
A stronger dollar typically pressures oil prices, while a weaker dollar supports them.
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A look at the USOIL chart on H1 timeframe
The chart shows that oil is moving within a short-term bearish trend, following its failure to hold above resistance levels near $97.00.
The price also experienced a clear break below previous support levels before initiating a limited rebound from the support zone around $87.70.
Currently, prices are attempting a gradual recovery; however, momentum remains cautious, as the MACD indicator shows slight improvement without confirming a full trend reversal.
Key Levels
Trend: Short-term bearish with potential bullish correction
Support:
- 88.00
- 87.70
Resistance:
- 92.00
- 95.00
Outlook
If prices hold above 88.00, a continued recovery toward 92.00 and then 95.00 may be expected.
However, a break below 87.70 could renew selling pressure and push prices lower.
The inventory data remains the key driver for today’s market direction.
Summary
Oil is trading within a cautious range between recovery attempts and ongoing pressure, as markets await US inventory data, which may play a decisive role in determining the next price direction.