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Jul 29, 2025
Euro falls as dollar gains after trade deal
Investors await Fed decision with cautious optimism
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The euro is under increasing pressure after the US-EU trade agreement, which imposed 15% tariffs on EU imports, was seen as a deal favoring the United States. This contributed to the euro's decline to 1.1584, amid uncertainty about the agreement's impact on regional growth. The dollar is recovering strongly, supported by continued investor inflows following the agreement, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its current meeting (4.25%-4.50%). Global stocks are mixed: US indices and the Nasdaq rose ahead of strong earnings results and the Fed meeting, while Asian stocks fell on concerns about the impact of tariffs on growth. |
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Oil prices have risen to new highs since July 18, supported by easing trade risks and escalating geopolitical tensions around Ukraine. Brent crude was trading around $70.26, and WTI crude was trading at $66.98.
Gold is generally stable around $3,315 per ounce, with a slight decline in safe-haven demand amid anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision.
The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2025-2026, but warned of persistent inflationary and tariff risks that could negatively impact the recovery.
Upcoming Outlook
- Markets will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's July 29-30 meeting to determine the next interest rate path.
- Any indication of a cut, hold, or change in the Fed's stance could lead to significant volatility in currencies, stocks, and commodities.
- Oil may continue to gain as geopolitical tensions persist.
- Gold, meanwhile, may be subject to additional downward pressure if the dollar stabilizes and strong economic data emerges.