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U.S. CPI, Retail Sales, and Oil Drive Markets

January data to drive moves in dollar, gold, oil, and equities

Global markets enter a decisive week starting February 9, 2026, as January U.S. inflation and retail sales data converge with major energy reports, alongside key growth indicators from China, Europe, and the United Kingdom. The combination is expected to keep volatility elevated across the U.S. dollar, commodities, and equity markets.

Tuesday, February 10 – U.S. Retail Sales (January)

At 17:30 GST, U.S. Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.4% vs. 0.6% previously, while Core Retail Sales are also forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.5% previously.

The data will be closely watched for signals on U.S. consumer strength and how markets reassess the growth outlook and Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Wednesday, February 11 – A Crowded Global Session

At 05:30 GST, China releases January inflation data:

• CPI (Monthly): 0.2%
• CPI (Annual): 0.4% expected vs. 0.8% previously
• PPI (Annual): -1.5% expected vs. -1.9% previously

An improvement in Chinese inflation data could support Asian risk sentiment and industrial commodities early in the session.

Later, at 17:30 GST, key U.S. labor market data (January) will be released:

• Average Hourly Earnings (Monthly): 0.3%
• Nonfarm Payrolls: 70K expected vs. 50K previously
• Unemployment Rate: 4.4%

Stronger labor data would reinforce the “higher for longer” policy narrative, supporting the U.S. dollar and weighing on rate-sensitive assets.

At 19:30 GST, U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are expected to show a 3.455 million barrel draw, which could lend support to oil prices if confirmed.

Thursday, February 12 – Growth and Labor Signals

At 11:00 GST, the UK releases Q4 GDP data:

• Annual GDP: 1.3%
• Monthly GDP (December): 0.1% expected vs. 0.3% previously
• Quarterly GDP: 0.2% expected vs. 0.1% previously

In the U.S.:

• Initial Jobless Claims: 222K expected vs. 231K previously
• Existing Home Sales: 4.22M expected vs. 4.35M previously
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: $6.606 trillion

Together, these releases will shape global growth sentiment and influence “soft landing versus slowdown” pricing.

Friday, February 13 – The Week’s Peak

Inflation data from both Europe and the United States (January) will headline the session.

Eurozone:

• Core CPI (Annual): 2.6%
• GDP (Annual, Q4): 1.3%

United States at 17:30 GST:

• CPI (Monthly): 0.3%
• CPI (Annual): 2.5% expected vs. 2.7% previously
• Core CPI (Monthly): 0.3% expected vs. 0.2% previously

A broad-based downside inflation surprise would favor risk assets, while upside surprises—especially in core inflation—could renew volatility, strengthen the dollar, and pressure equities and gold.

Overall Outlook

This week brings together the inflation narrative and the global energy balance theme. January price data will shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy through 2026, while reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will influence outlooks for oil demand, supply, and OPEC+ policy.

Market sensitivity is expected to remain elevated, particularly across the U.S. dollar, gold, crude oil, and major equity indices.

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