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Did Gold Rise as Expected After the Fed Cut?

A Technical Outlook on Gold After Breaking Key Levels

Gold continued its strong bullish momentum today, December 12, 2025, extending the upward move that began after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut. Price action unfolded exactly as anticipated in yesterday’s outlook, which highlighted the potential for a breakout above 4230, followed by targets at 4248 and 4265 before entering a new expansion phase. Indeed, gold successfully broke through these key technical levels and is now stabilizing near 4323 — its highest level in weeks — confirming the strength of demand for the metal amid a weaker dollar and expectations of continued monetary easing through 2026.

The primary drivers behind gold’s rally include:

• A continued decline in real yields.
• Market expectations of an additional Fed rate cut in Q1 2026.
• Noticeable flows into safe-haven assets following signs of slowing global growth data.

Momentum on the MACD shows a clear positive expansion, reflecting strong buyer control with no meaningful signs of reversal so far.

Technical Analysis – Gold (XAUUSD)

Gold is currently moving within a wide ascending channel, trading above its upper trendline after a strong breakout. Holding above the 4280 zone reinforces the bullish scenario.

• A breakout above 4335 would extend the move toward 4358 and then 4380.
• A drop back below 4280 could initiate a mild corrective phase toward 4248.

Overall Trend: Strongly bullish
Support: 4280 – 4248
Resistance: 4335 – 4358 – 4380

Outlook: As long as gold remains above 4280, the probability of further upside stays strong, with new highs likely to form this week.

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