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Nov 04, 2025
Gold is retreating from its peaks near $4000
Technical pressures and US data limit the momentum
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On Tuesday, November 4, 2025, gold recorded a level close to $3,994.60 per ounce, a price that reflects a mix of strong support and suppressed risks. This combination puts the yellow metal at a crossroads between continuing to rise or entering a correction period. |
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1. Supporting Factors for Gold
Weak U.S. Dollar:
With the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts or declining real bond yields, the “opportunity cost” of holding gold decreases, making the metal more attractive.
Central Bank Buying:
Central banks — especially in East Asia and the Middle East — continue to accumulate gold reserves as part of a diversification strategy away from the U.S. dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand:
Geopolitical tensions and concerns about inflation or currency depreciation drive investors toward gold as a protective asset.
2. Risks and Pressures Facing Gold
Technical Overbought Signals:
From a technical standpoint, analysis suggests that gold may have entered an overbought zone, as indicators like RSI show extended upward moves.
Potential Dollar Strength or Higher Rates:
If the Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates or strong U.S. data supports rate stability, investors may shift toward yield-bearing assets, weakening gold’s momentum.
Profit-Taking and Upcoming Data:
Events such as inflation releases, employment data, or new central bank statements could reshape investor priorities and trigger short-term corrections.
3. Outlook / Technical Scenarios
If the bullish momentum continues and the U.S. dollar remains weak or geopolitical tensions escalate, the path toward $4,100–$4,150 per ounce remains possible.
Conversely, if gold fails to hold its nearby support levels, a decline toward $3,900–$3,850 could occur as an initial test of lower support.
Overall, the medium-term trend remains upward, but short-term volatility calls for caution and precise entry timing.