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Markets Await Fed Minutes and Key Data

From RBNZ to U.S. PCE, volatility looms across markets

Global markets enter the week of February 17–20, 2026, under cautious conditions. After reduced liquidity early in the week due to the U.S. holiday, attention quickly shifts to the Federal Reserve minutes and a series of critical inflation and growth indicators from the United States and Europe.

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

• Germany CPI (January, MoM): 0.1% expected vs. 0.0% previously
• Canada CPI (January, YoY): 2.4% expected vs. 2.4% previously

Germany’s inflation reading may offer an early signal on the broader Eurozone price trend, while Canadian CPI could influence Bank of Canada rate expectations and CAD positioning.

Wednesday, February 18, 2026 (The Week’s Most Crowded Session)

• RBNZ Rate Decision: 2.25% expected vs. 2.25% previously
• UK CPI (January, YoY): 3.0% expected vs. 3.4% previously
• FOMC Minutes (January Meeting)

The Federal Reserve minutes represent the central event of the week. Investors will closely examine whether the tone leans hawkish or dovish.

A more hawkish interpretation—signaling rates may stay higher for longer—would likely support the U.S. dollar and weigh on gold and rate-sensitive assets.
Conversely, a softer tone could reinforce expectations of rate cuts later in 2026, benefiting equities and precious metals.

 Thursday, February 19, 2026

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February): 7.8 expected vs. 12.6 previously
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: 229K expected vs. 227K previously
• U.S. Crude Oil Inventories: 8.530M previously

These releases will shape perceptions of U.S. industrial momentum and labor market resilience, directly influencing the “soft landing vs. slowdown” narrative.

Meanwhile, oil inventory data will feed into the broader energy balance outlook, with implications for inflation expectations through the energy channel.

 Friday, February 20, 2026 (The Week’s Peak)

• Core PCE (December, MoM): 0.3% expected vs. 0.2% previously
• Core PCE (December, YoY): 3.0% expected vs. 2.8% previously
• U.S. GDP (Q4, QoQ): 2.8% expected vs. 4.4% previously
• Manufacturing PMI (February): 52.1 expected vs. 52.4 previously
• Services PMI (February): 52.8 expected vs. 52.7 previously
• New Home Sales (December): 735K expected vs. 737K previously

Core PCE inflation is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected reading would reinforce the “higher for longer” rate narrative, supporting the dollar and potentially pressuring equities and gold.

However, if inflation softens while growth indicators also weaken, markets may reprice toward earlier rate cuts—creating a more supportive environment for risk assets.

A simultaneous upside surprise in both inflation and growth would likely strengthen the dollar, while a broad downside surprise could lift equities and precious metals.

Macro Outlook

This week’s developments highlight the strong linkage between inflation, monetary policy expectations, and energy markets.

Energy data, particularly oil inventories, contribute directly to inflation dynamics, which in turn influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. As a result, the interaction between the FOMC minutes, Core PCE inflation, and oil balance data may define short-term direction across the U.S. dollar, gold, and major equity indices.

With liquidity initially thin and key data concentrated later in the week, volatility risks remain elevated.

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