The Biden administration’s new sanctions on Russia have raised concerns about a potential supply shock to the oil market. Rystad Energy estimates that the sanctions, which target ships carrying Russian crude and related extraction and trading companies, could reduce exports by up to 1 million barrels per day. However, the short timeframe for implementation could limit the actual impact on oil flows. Rystad Energy expects Brent crude prices to remain in a range around $80 per barrel, with limited potential to break $90.

The energy consultancy suggests that the current shock could last for several weeks. It is worth noting that previous global sanctions against Russia in 2022 did not significantly reduce Russian production or exports, as prices quickly fell below $100 per barrel.